Global warming controversy

Continued from global warming

Controversyscientific community

Amongst some sections ofscientific community, controversy continuessurroundhypothesis that human activitiescontributing significantlyglobal warming. The IPCC science working group agrees that theresignificant successesproblems withsimulations whichusedpredict climate, while opponents assert thatsummaries omitnegative aspects (see IPCC)mostly report progressbeing madeunderstanding climate. A numberscientistsbackgroundsclimate research -- notably Richard Lindzen, Fred Singer, Patrick Michaels, Robert BallingSherwood Idso -- disputeglobal warming theory (see global warming skepticism). Also,numberconservative think tanks opposetheory, some implying that fraud has been involvedadvocacyit (see ScienceEnvironmental Policy Project).

Supportindustry-backed organizations (such asGlobal Climate Coalition,Greening Earth Societythese scientists' skepticismtaken by some as evidence against their contention thattheoryunproven. Iffossil-fuel industryassumedalways value profit above scientific rigor, thenintegrityany scientist funded by that industryassumedbe compromised, especially if that scientist's viewsfavorable tocontinued healthfossil-fuel industry. Some criticsenvironmentalist politics see this argument as an indirect ad hominem attack onscientists mentioned above.

Uncertainty

A degreeuncertainty remains. Some believe thatpresent warming trend shown by some land-based weather stations, marine observations, borehole thermometry,satellite observationslikelycontinue or increase, fueled byemissioncarbon dioxideother gases whichbelievedbe "greenhouse gases". Others argue that solar variability playsmuch bigger roleclimate changequestion whetherhuman influenceeven discernible.

Magnitudewarming

Uncertainty also remains aboutlikely magnitudefuture global warming (the IPCC suggestsrange1.45.8 °C between 19902100 [1])its environmental impacts. Environmentalistsother advocates fear thatimpacts will be profound. If warming werecontinue atpresent rate, there would be adverse changesocean circulation, catastrophic global climate change, lossbiodiversityirreversible damageagriculturethose ecoregions most affected. In some regions, e.g. Western EuropeBangladesh, damageprojectedbe extreme, duelossGulf Stream warmingglobal sea level rise respectively. More frequent boutsdestructive weatheralso anticipated,risk experts ininsurance industry have expressed very strong concerns, advocatingproactive approach based onprecautionary principle. Estimates accepted byIPCCby some insurance industry bodies estimate up3.5 billion people could be affected by rising disease, lossfresh water supply,other impacts.

Opposition

In opposition standfossil fuel industryits advocates, who have takenstrong standopposing most theorieshuman-caused global warming as well as actionmitigate Global Warming. They argue that cripplingenergy industryprevent an ecological catastrophe does not make economic sense - that healthy economiesrequiredfund technologically innovative solutions. US president George W. Bush made this argumentrejectingKyoto Protocol. Bush did not rejectscience outright, but argued thatgreenhouse gas control wasmattervoluntary restraint by industry. However, many countries have rejected these argumentshave signed up toKyoto Protocol. Also, many U.S. states have nonetheless put strong controls on greenhouse gases.

Standoff

This standoff has madescientific questions difficultdistinguish from political ones.

Counting experts

The proportionscientists who support or oppose any ofglobal warming theories ismattercontroversyits own right (see scientific opinionglobal warming). Environmentaliststheir allies claim virtually unanimous support forglobal warming theory fromscientific community. Opponents maintain thatisother way around, claiming thatoverwhelming majorityscientists either dismiss global warming altogether or merely consider"unproven" (see global warming skepticism).

Arguments aroundworld

The arguments over global warmingviewed differentlydifferent parts ofworld. In Europeexampleenvironmentalist argument over Global warming has gained wider acceptance thanother parts ofworld, most notably North America.

Cause or effect

Some scientists point out that global warming correlates closelynatural factors, especially solar activity. The balanceattributed toactionhumans (see anthropogenic global warming). How much warmingnatural versus man-made has been debated since1990s by scientists, politiciansadvocacy organizations.

Beneficial or detrimental

Therealso disagreement on whethereffectsglobal warming will be beneficial or detrimental. Many researchers predict disastrous consequences forwarming1.57 degrees celsius. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts suchwarminglikely within21st century, unless severe measurestaken (see Kyoto Protocol).

Other researchers feel that up1.5 degrees Centrigadewarming would increase crop yieldsstabilize weather. Manythese doubtlarger warminglikely. In response, some advocatesstrong early measures (well beyond Kyoto) note thatbeliefbeneficial effects anddoubt thatlarge warmingpossible should be independent if these conclusions werefact neutrally derived from scientific research.

Waitsee

Others suggest that"waitsee" strategy disadvantages 3.5 billion peoplefavornarrow advantage forfew growing regionsdeveloped nations.

An unstable world

New findings have suggested thatearth's climate systeminherently unstable,that global warming could thus precipitate non-linear sudden climate shifts, as have been discoveredhave occurred withinearth's past. Ocean circulation, believedbekeysuch climate shifts, has been observedbe slowing, causing alarm among oceanographers. As briefly mentioned before some scientists fear thatGulf stream which conveys warm water fromCaribbean Sea acrossAtlantic Oceanis partly responsible forrelative mildnessnorthern Europe's climate (though other factors also predominate: [1]). There isfear thatcould be reduced or stopped altogether bydecreased salt content insea water, which would result from global warming. Which could cause temperaturesnorthern europedrop.

The US National AcademySciences issuedreport on this phenomenon2002, titled Abrupt Climate Change - Inevitable Surprises.[1] "Itimportant notbe fatalistic aboutthreats posed by abrupt climate change,"stated. "Societies have faced both gradualabrupt climate changesmillenniahave learnedadapt through various mechanisms, such as moving indoors, developing irrigationcrops,migrating away from inhospitable regions. Nevertheless, because climate change will likely continue incoming decades, denyinglikelihood or downplayingrelevancepast abrupt events could be costly."

Historical temperature record

Therealso disagreement onhistorical temperature record. Depending on what direct measurementsmeasurement proxiesused, researchers have presented various derived historical temperature records. One popular study suggests stable temperature followed bysudden, steady rise in20th century. Numerous studies indicatecold period calledLittle Ice Age which ended just before20th Century. Recent actual temperature records indicate rising temperatures during20th Century until 1945, thenthirty year periodcooling until warming again since 1976.

Recent reports

However,US National AcademySciences, bothits 2002 reportPresident George W. Bush,in its latest publications, has strongly endorsed evidencean average global temperature increase in20th centurystated that human activityheavily implicatedcausing this increase. The American Meteorological Society (AMS statement),American Geophysical Union (AGU statement),other scientific societies have issued similar declarations.

Advocates ofglobal warming hypothesis who predict adverse consequences from as little as 1.5 degrees Centigradewarming nearly all supportKyoto Protocol ascountermeasure. Details ofagreementinarticle aboutKyoto Protocol, including bothpollutionfiscal requirements.

Proponents' Position

Supporters ofglobal warming hypothesis portraycontroversy asconflict between unbiased scientists warningpublic againstdangerglobal warminggreedy, unscrupulous energy companies distortingfacts forsakeprofit. The motivationproponent organizationsoften ignored.

Skeptics' Position

• Thereno significant global warming
• Global warmingnot caused by human activity
• A small amountglobal warming would be benign
• Climate science can not make predictions yet
• Climate has natural variances greater than what humans can cause

Membersthis faction give more weightdata such as temperature measurements made from weather balloonssatellites whichclaim show less warming than surface landsea records.